March 23, 2021 Meeting By James Rayner
Steve Paikin – Host of TVO’s The Agenda
The speaker at our March 23 virtual meeting was the well-known and respected host of
The Agenda, seen on TVO (Channel 2) at 8:00 and 11:00 PM. Steve Paikin has followed
Ontario politics for half a century and is, therefore, quite knowledgeable about political
matters. He shared some of his insights with us in the form of The Ten Top Things I’m
Watching In Ontario and Federal Politics, in the next 15 months leading up to the next
provincial election.
In reverse order of importance, here they are in summary:
- The “minivan party”, the derisive term applied to the Liberal party of Ontario after the
last election when they were reduced from the ruling party to a rump of 7 seats. They are still not in a good place with a huge post-election debt, trouble finding candidates, and a need to develop new policies. However, they are sitting in second place in public opinion, just behind the Conservatives. What will happen in the next election?
- The Green party has a new leader, Annamie Paul—female, Black, and Jewish. She has tried to get elected in Toronto Centre riding twice and lost even after tripling the Green vote last time. How will she fare in the next federal election?
- Leslyn Lewis, a relatively unknown Black female who came in third in the leadership
race of the federal Conservative Party. A social conservative who sees socialism
everywhere, how successful will she be in the future of the Conservative Party of Canada?
- Rod Phillips who was Minister of Finance provincially screwed up by going south for a vacation while his government was urging Ontarians to stay home during the pandemic. His staff even posted on social media, “live” events where he seemed to be doing his job out in the riding but it was all pre-recorded. Can he make a come-back?
- Andrea Horwath, leader of the NDP for 12 years, including three elections, made it to leader of the official opposition last time but that is probably because of the Liberal collapse. Steve figures she has one more chance to win an election as even three unsuccessful campaigns are rare for a leader without being turfed.
- Long Term Care homes have become a hot topic because of the huge number of deaths from COVID-19 that have occurred in them—over 70% of Ontario’s victims. Doug Ford’s vaunted “iron ring” of protection for these institutions has not materialized. Andrea Horwath would like to disband the for-profit sector and make these homes part of the health care network. A report on LTC is due by the end of April. Will its calls for action be heeded?
- Should schools be open or closed? They are dangerous places with many old buildings, poor ventilation, and students who are not good at social distancing. Apparently, the rate of Corona virus transmission is not as high as feared. Screen-based learning lacks engagement and the attention of students. How do we move on from the present situation?
- Federal politics are very important in Ontario, as this province decides each federal
election, having 40% of the population. Currently, the federal Liberals are in a good place, still outranking all other parties in public opinion while the official opposition is in disarray with the majority of members not supporting their leader’s acceptance of climate change. In the inevitable elections to come, how will provincial politicians support their federal colleagues, and vice-versa?
- Tomorrow (March 24) is budget day in Ontario. The province has a projected deficit of
$38 billion, a situation that cannot continue. How will Peter Bethlenfalvy deal with this situation? What will be his plan to retire the deficit while promoting a recovery of the economy?
- When Doug Ford won election as Premier of Ontario, his first year was spent fighting
with everybody he disagreed with, aided by his assistant, buddy Dean French. When
French’s patronage appointments became a liability, he was let go and a short time later, Ford had to deal with the pandemic. Something seems to have transformed him into a less combative and co-operative partner with the federal government, especially with Justin Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland. As a result, his public image has gained favour. Can this continue?
Steve Paikin has written several books based on his years of reporting on Ontario
politics. It looks as if several more could spring from these ten items he is following—and which we will be following too.
Probus Club of Kingsway-Islington 